MY WAY MY WAY MY WAY
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"Your customers and sales will be assimilated into ours, resistance is futile, We are the Wal*Mart" |
God, in a little over a month from now"we’ll all" be in Vegas. (If you’re not coming, you’re making a BIG mistake). The years definitely go faster as I get older. It seems like it was only a few months ago that we did Vegas and here it is time to do again and as always, I’m optimistic this year I’ll do it right (or luck out, I’m not proud) and make some big deals.
Okay, time for me to make some predictions on how the show will be (I’ve learned over the years that when I’m wrong, no one remembers and when I’m right, no one remembers, so what do I have to lose). First, I think we’ll have a near record attendance, not so much that business is good, as business isn’t bad and everyone involved in the business wants to get some better insight into what the near future holds and they too hope to make that "big deal" I’m seeking. Second, the overall results of the show will be fair, as there will be few new projects to excite retailers with and there’s such an abundance of big-box space available that the majority of landlords will walk away unsatisfied. Most retailers have been presented these centers three or four times already, so now it’s a matter of how desperate are they for new locations because they’ve already said no numerous times. The good news is a high percentage of these vacancies will develop some degree of interest in Vegas and whether or not the deal actually closes, many leasing agents will walk away with "hopes." Another Frank Sinatra song I enjoy is "To Dream the Impossible Dream," which may become the theme song for Vegas this year if you’re a big-box landlord.
Another positive bit of news I predict is that there will be strong interest and numerous deals made with users of 10,000 sq.ft. or less. They seem more aggressive on expansion than many of the big-box tenants. On the other hand, most leasing reps will go to Vegas with hopes of meeting a tenant they never heard of and more importantly, that will be interested in their center (I’m one of them). Hate to tell you this, but that won’t happen for most of us. Continuing with the good news (well, for developers, at least), even with the glut of space and sublease space available, rents won’t be dropping but TI might flow freer.
I noticed in the show’s program the ICSC has decided to be less controversial with their speakers this year than in the past. They’re having H. Lee Scott, president of Wal*Mart, as the keynote speaker on Monday (His topic I hear is "Your customers and sales will be assimilated into ours, resistance is futile, We are the Wal*Mart." And on Tuesday they have Magic Johnson and Jerry Leninger, the astronaut giving a speech. A much better list of speakers, and in my opinion, a lot more desirable than a Buchanan. Also, to improve service to their members and more importantly, to stop all the bitching they heard after the fiasco last year at the check in, the ICSC is mailing badges this year IF you registered early enough (hopefully you remembered). I still don’t like the shortened agenda but overall, this should be a productive show.
Talking of shows, another convention, the 2002 National Real Estate On-Line Real Estate Convention & Exposition will be held online April 18th-21st. To my knowledge, it’s the first online ONLY trade show held for the real estate industry. Online will never replace local or national dealmaking events but it should be interesting to "attend." For details go to:
http://www.recyber.com/preconvention. It’s free, so give it a try.We didn’t attend the Monterey, CA Dealmaking show, but in a conversation with Lee Cherney of Kin Properties, he said the cocktail party had a low attendance but overall, the show attracted about 500 people, with a decent amount from the east coast. The mood was "neutral" according to Lee, which fits in with the pattern I’ve seen at other shows. Few "newbies" were present, which unfortunately is another pattern emerging. There were a decent amount of "real" retailers, both manning booths and walking the floor and most had the time to spend 15 to 20 minutes chatting. I’m not sure if that’s a good sign or not. Lee said T.J. Maxx was extremely upbeat about their HomeGoods stores and most retailers appeared content __ most importantly all retailers were trying to do deals. Lee also mentioned that he talked to one retailer that has three VP’s of real estate and only plans on opening 35 stores this year. I guess instead of a pay increase, they make everyone a VP.
Anyway, unless the DC show, which is right before the Vegas event, breaks the pattern and is radically different, Vegas will be a decent show, so make sure you attend.
Moving on, I’m not promoting advertising in the Dealmakers, but I have to comment upon some of the answers our sales people get when they call companies regarding marketing/advertising. Now I can understand the companies that turn us down if they have no or limited vacancies, I may not agree but I can "accept" the ones that say they are advertising somewhere else (fools that they are), and I accept no matter how foolish it may be that the surplus properties division at most retailers have no real marketing budget (and need it bad and worse for them, the surplus division rarely gets respect), BUT I have real problems with answers like:
• "We spent $50,000 on our Web page, that’s all we need." (of course they didn’t bother to register their site with the various search engines, don’t promote the site’s address or add it to their stationary or business cards, but that’s besides the point)
• "We have 250,000 sq.ft. coming out of the ground, but we want to maintain a low profile." (huh?)
• "We already contacted EVERY possible retailer and know where they want to be." (yeah, right)
• "We’re local and small, so we don’t have to advertise in a national trade publication." (I guess they want to remain small)
Now, I assume most of the people responding aren’t stupid and are just giving us a polite excuse why they aren’t advertising with us (instead of saying they wouldn’t advertise with us in a million years), BUT in a way they’re either not too bright or think we’re dumb. These answers make no sense. Now don’t get me wrong, if you don’t advertise, that doesn’t make you stupid (that’s my opinion not Ann’s), but this industry does LESS to market their "product" than any other industry I can think of short of morticians (remember you don’t have to lease space in a center but you do have to die). If you have any decent amount of vacancies, you should either (or all) be:
• Advertising in one or more of the trade publications
• Doing mass mailings to retailers and brokers or a broadcast fax to retailers and brokers.
• Using Email to promote to retailers and brokers
• And finally, (the best) calling retailers and brokers to lease your center (and this doesn’t include putting up leasing signs, having brochures, demographics, etc.)
Also, if you haven’t yet read our two articles on marketing and leasing on our home page, go to www.dealmakers.net/sc_marketing.htm and www.dealmakers.net/73ways/page0.htm. It should provide some helpful ideas.
FYI, if you look at the latest ICSC membership directory (that in itself is worth most of our membership fees) they include a high percentage of fax and Email addresses for our fellow members. It’s worth your time to input the ones that MIGHT be interested in your property and start faxing, calling and emailing ‘em. There is no one "right" way to promote your center, but I guarantee if you do the above, deals will be done. Often I see a vacant Jamesway, Caldors and Bradleys (even an occasional WT Grant) and when I speak to the owners about using our services they explain to me how "they’re dealing with three retailers and should have it leased shortly," so they don’t need me. Of course, this has been going on in some cases for five years, so you’d think they learn. See you in Vegas.