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Observations & Conversations
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Observations & Conversations Even Ted would have complimented the ICSC on their accomplishments with this year’s convention. Ted would have been impressed with this year’s convention and by the number of people that stopped by our booth to offer condolences. It was obvious by the heartfelt comments made to me and Josh on the convention floor that he influenced and helped a lot of people in the industry over the years. Again, thanks to all of you for your good thoughts and kind words about Ted. It was nice to see so many of our old friends. Even Ted would have complimented the ICSC on their accomplishments with this year’s convention and that didn’t happen often… the running joke of the office was that when he gave a compliment we chiseled it in stone. TKO relocated its booth to the South Hall to be near the retailers and it was a good move. Thankfully, most of my appointments were at our booth or two streets down in the retailer zone, but I did have some meetings in the other halls and what a hike. A lot of people were late for appointments and I heard about more no-shows for meetings this year than ever before. My bet is that most of the no-shows were lost or so late they were ashamed to show up. Before we started making appointments, we spent two days with a color-coded floor plan of the show mapping out who we needed to see and we took our floor plans with us – I’m sure when people spotted the TKO/Dealmakers crew walking the show floor they looked like the tourists in midtown Manhattan mesmerized by street maps. But we made it to our meetings with seconds to spare so the additional prep time was well spent. If you were organized, this year’s show should have been productive since there were more companies exhibiting and more people attending. The official ICSC attendee count for the 2007 Convention is 50,734 - if you couldn’t find one deal out of 50,000 potential people to talk to, it’s probably your fault! I arrived Tuesday before the convention to take a day to relax and I was surprised at how many shopping center people were in Las Vegas the week before the show. We had meetings starting Friday before the convention and through the weekend. I think quite a few folks had trouble fitting in all the people they needed to see and extended their trip so they could meet over the weekend. I have to admit that our meetings on Friday and Saturday were a lot more enjoyable, since most of them were poolside. As far as the party scene went, I went to Gibraltar Management’s dinner, the NY Developers party and on Wednesday it was the annual Kin Properties get-together. Of course, the other folks here at TKO/Dealmakers tore it up and between the six of them I think they hit four or five parties on both Monday and Tuesday nights. Most of my appointments were for Burlington Coat Factory. TKO is scouting sites for BCF in Puerto Rico. (If you’ve got space on the Island – call me at 609-587-6200.) It’s an interesting market. Because there are so many new centers being proposed, even if just 50% of the projects actually are built by 2010, Puerto Rico will see tremendous growth in the next few years. On the topic of new construction, one of the biggest concerns out there for both retailers and developers from coast-to-coast is the rising cost of construction materials. Trying to structure a deal’s build out costs today based on breaking ground two years from now is a lot like target practice with a blindfold. I do think some of the deals on the table are too optimistic and quite a few retailers expecting to build their store with $100 a foot in landlord contributions will be left holding the proverbial bag when they actually start construction in a few years. We’re also selling several redevelopment opportunities in the Northeast and South. During my discussions with potential buyers, they noted that rising interest rates are starting to narrow their future acquisition pipeline. I also talked with some investors that tap pension fund money, and they are having more difficulties sourcing new acquisitions because the pension funds are being more stringent on geographically diversifying their portfolios. TKO is also leasing several existing centers and we had a few retailers walk into our booth that we hadn’t talked to before, so that’s always a good thing. I did have one meeting on a center we’re leasing with a tenant that we’ve been negotiating with for a year and I felt like I was sitting across the table from dumb and dumber. We sent them lease comments four months ago and their attorney still hasn’t responded. Then we get to Vegas and we’re told that they want to build a smaller footprint, plus more landlord contributions for the build out, and because of the layout of the site we can’t add 3,000 sq.ft. for another tenant – they wanted us to eat the lost revenue, spend more money in TI and wait some more for lease comments since they’re hiring a new attorney. They wondered why I lost my cool and thought that I was being unreasonable! Luckily, it’s a decent site and we’ve got lots of activity, so telling them to take a hike gave me some satisfaction. We’ll be in Pittsburgh this month at the ICSC Idea Exchange and during July we’ll be in Boston at the ICSC New England States Dealmaking, and I’ll also be in Puerto Rico looking at sites, then in August we’ll be at the Florida Dealmaking in Kissimmeee, so if we didn’t have a chance to say "hello’ in Vegas, look us up at one of the shows over the summer. Also next month, The Dealmakers publishes our annual Retail Brokers Guide, a directory on the top retail real estate brokers in the country. Besides providing comprehensive contact information, the guide is broken down geographically and lists the brokerage companies’ clients and specialty of expertise. The guide also has our annual "State of the Industry" survey that polls 60,000 retail real estate executives on their predictions for next year and gauges how the 2007 retail real estate climate compares to last year. It’s a helpful resource - keep an eye out for it, but in case you miss it we have copies available throughout the year at our booth for every ICSC show.. Until next month, Ann O'Neal, Publisher |